Israelis Head to Polls in Knesset Race Where Neither Side Projects a Majority

Tel Aviv residents and voters across the country will cast ballots on Tuesday to select the next government, marking the first national vote since the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. The election takes place while Israel continues military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocating for a third round of conflict with Iran.

Polls from right-leaning and left-leaning organizations show different projections, but most agree that neither the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu nor the opposing change bloc is likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a decisive majority in the 120-seat Knesset. This potential stalemate could lead to protracted negotiations, the formation of a minority government, or a repeat election.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, stated that an indecisive outcome appears to be the most likely result. He noted that voter turnout is a critical variable, particularly among Arab-Israeli citizens who make up approximately 20 percent of the population. Plesner said that higher Arab turnout reduces the likelihood that Netanyahu can form another government with his current far-right allies.

Jehad Abomoch, a cafe owner in Baqa al Gharbiya, a predominantly Arab city, said that many Arab Israelis feel the past four years have been a social and military catastrophe. He described the sentiment among his community as having no hope or future under the current leadership, driving a strong desire to prevent Netanyahu from retaining power with far-right partners who have implemented policies that have affected their lives.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, is running on a platform that emphasizes security and the necessity of his leadership to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. He argued that only he can form a government without the support of Arab parties and that he needs more time to complete the war efforts. President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, warning that the United States might have to act alone against Iran if Netanyahu does not remain in power.

The primary challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, former military chief of staff and leader of the centrist Yashar party. Eisenkot lost his son and two nephews in military service in Gaza. He is campaigning on a platform of unity and accountability, promising to launch a state inquiry into the intelligence failures that allowed the October 7 attack. Eisenkot criticized Netanyahu for using fear-mongering tactics, including the recent release of an AI-generated image of a mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv.

Uzi Aharoni, a 73-year-old engineer from Tel Aviv, supported Eisenkot as the only honest alternative to Netanyahu. He described Eisenkot as a leader who would prioritize the people of Israel over his own family interests. Eisenkot’s party features a high number of female candidates, contrasting with the male-dominated lineup of Netanyahu’s coalition partners.

Two new parties focused on demanding that ultra-Orthodox men join the mandatory military draft are also running in the election. Polls show these parties hovering near the threshold required to gain Knesset seats. Their performance could tip the balance of power, as the ultra-Orthodox draft issue cuts through Netanyahu’s traditional support base and coalition partners.

If neither bloc wins a clear majority, Israeli politics offers several paths forward. Parties or individual lawmakers may switch sides to form a coalition, a common occurrence in Israeli history. Alternatively, the change bloc could attempt to form a minority government if it wins more seats than the opposition but not more than 50 percent of the total. If neither side can build a workable government, Israel will hold new elections, a scenario that occurred five times between 2019 and 2022.