Lawler's NY-17 Race Shifts to Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the seat from Toss-up to Leans Republican on Monday, just one day before voters head to the polls.
By Adrian Kovalenko ·
The final pre-election ratings released on Monday marked a rare shift in the 2026 midterm cycle. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball moved New York's 17th congressional district from Toss-up to Leans Republican.
The change favors incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler. His district was one of only three races to move in the GOP direction during the final rating update. The other two seats were Kentucky's open 6th district and Missouri's 2nd district, held by Ann Wagner.
The move comes after a volatile year for the district. President Joe Harris won the seat in 2024 by less than one point. Lawler then defeated Mondaire Jones by six points in the general election.
Lawler is one of only three Republicans to retain a seat that Harris won in 2024. The others are Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania and Don Bacon in Nebraska. Both of their races moved in the Democratic direction on Monday. Fitzpatrick's Pennsylvania 1st is now Leans Democratic, while Nebraska's open 2nd is rated Likely Democratic.
Democratic challengers had signaled confidence in unseating Lawler earlier this year. In June, Cait Conley told Simon Rosenberg that Republicans feared facing her in November. She repeated on Morning Joe in August that party leadership prioritized removing Lawler from office.
Lawler's campaign manager, Ciro Riccardi, pointed to the shift as a rebuttal to Democratic claims. "The DCCC told everybody back in July that Mike was on the ropes," Riccardi said. "Three months later the Crystal Ball moved Mike's race to Leans Republican. Hakeem Jeffries and his political advisors may cost Democrats dozens of House seats with the tens of millions they've spent trying to unseat Mike, and the race is still shifting in our favor."
Voting takes place on Tuesday, November 3. Lawler will vote between 9:00 AM and 10:00 AM at St. Aedan's Church in Pearl River. The Rockland County Republican Committee will host him at the Hilton Pearl River for election night coverage. Doors open at 7:00 PM, with camera crews allowed on site from 1:00 PM.
