18 NFL deadline deals face the risk of becoming expensive mistakes
The 2026 trade deadline produced 18 transactions, with five involving high-value draft picks that may not yield the expected on-field return.
By Naomi Tesfaye ·
The Indianapolis Colts sent two first-round picks to the New York Jets in 2025 to acquire cornerback Sauce Gardner. That move stands as a cautionary tale for the 18 deals completed ahead of the 2026 trade deadline. Teams hoping to avoid a similar disaster engaged in transactions that carry substantial financial risk. Only one of this year's 18 trades involved two first-round selections, while another included a single first-rounder. The rest involved second- or third-round picks, but the potential for regret remains high if the players do not perform as expected.
The Chicago Bears traded Jeffery Simmons to the team for two first-round picks. The deal mirrors the structure of the Gardner transaction. Simmons has produced a sack and a pass breakup in each of his first two games for Chicago. He also recorded a tackle for loss in his debut. These early results suggest the Bears may have avoided the fate of the Colts. However, long-term injury risks keep the trade from being considered a certainty.
The Jacksonville Jaguars acquired defensive tackle Jordan Davis in exchange for a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-rounder. The move was designed to replace DaVon Hamilton, who suffered a season-ending quad tear. Davis has never recorded more than 4.5 sacks in a season. The Jaguars are contending for the top seed in the AFC, so the trade will be judged largely by postseason performance. If Davis does not elevate the defense during the playoffs, the cost of the two draft picks may be viewed as an overpay.
The Houston Texans acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. from the Arizona Cardinals for a second-round pick. Harrison was the 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner but has struggled in recent seasons. He has not caught more than three passes in a game since joining Houston. He has run only 29 routes across three games, all coming off the bench. His limited playing time may indicate he is not a primary option in a receiving corps that includes Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, Tank Dell, and Kayshon Boutte.
The Minnesota Vikings signed quarterback Kirk Cousins from the Las Vegas Raiders for a third-round pick. Cousins is on pace for his first 40-touchdown season. He previously played for Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell and made the Pro Bowl. The team is betting that his reunion with O'Connell will reignite his performance. If he cannot replicate his success in Las Vegas, the trade represents a lateral move rather than an upgrade over Kyler Murray.
The Dallas Cowboys traded for cornerback Joey Porter Jr. from the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 2028 second-round pick and a 2027 sixth-rounder. Porter has played in only one full game since the October 1 trade. He missed time due to illness and an ankle injury. When on the field, he allows opponents a 47.9 passer rating. The Cowboys' defense remains the third-worst in the league in yards allowed per game. There is also uncertainty regarding his contract status, as the Steelers were unwilling to meet his salary demands.
The Seattle Seahawks acquired guard Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts for a 2027 third-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick. Nelson underwent a minor knee procedure and is listed as week-to-week. He did not play in Week 10. The Seahawks have not seen a significant improvement in their rushing attack since his arrival, averaging 3.6 yards per carry in their most recent game. If Nelson remains injured and leaves in free agency, Seattle would lose two draft picks and an All-Pro lineman for limited return.
